Among the various apocalyptic scenarios involving new technologies, artificial intelligence certainly holds the top of the podium. However, the researchers looked at other possible outcomes involving advanced technologies. This is the case of the “grey jelly” scenario, in which self-replicating nanorobots out of control could endanger the planet by destroying its entire ecosystem.
The idea of self-replicating machines is not new. It appears with the work of the mathematician and computer scientist John von Neumann from the beginning of the 20th century. Indeed, initially, a von Neumann machine is a type of autonomous machine capable of replicating itself using raw materials from its environment. Since then, the concept has been used both in engineering and in many works of science fiction.
Although the idea of gray frost is considered highly unlikely by scientists, several public reports have been commissioned by governments to analyze the true potential of the threat. These reports are justified by the development of numerous projects involving self-replicating machines such as the RepRap Project at the University of Bath or the various projects carried out by the NASA Institute for Advanced Concepts.
In his book "The Engines of Creation", the American Kim Eric Drexler, one of the fathers of nanorobotics and molecular nanotechnology (MNT), published in 1986, describes the behavior of self-replicating nanorobots, in particular their possibility of exponential growth if the materials available in the environment are inexhaustible.
“Imagine such a replicator floating in a bottle of chemicals, making copies of itself…the first replicator assembles one copy in a thousand seconds, the two replicators then build two more in a thousand seconds, the four in build four more and the eight build eight more .
“At the end of ten hours, there are not thirty-six new replicators, but more than 68 billion. In less than a day they would weigh a ton; in less than two days, they would weigh more than the Earth; in the next four hours, they would exceed the mass of the Sun and all the planets combined — if the chemical bottle doesn't run out soon .
This video presents a nano-block robot, developed by Cornell University, capable of self-replicating:
“Robust, omnivorous ‘bacteria’ could supplant real bacteria:they could spread like pollen, replicate rapidly and reduce the biosphere to dust in days. Dangerous replicators could easily be too tough, too small, and expand too quickly, at least if we didn't do any preparation. We already have enough problems controlling viruses and flies .
According to Drexler, humanity does not need to develop self-replicating machines; such robots are unnecessarily complex to manufacture and do not possess sufficient efficiency to justify their development. This would therefore solve the problem of the possibility of such a worst-case scenario.
Related:What would happen on Earth if the robots revolted?
In an engineering book published in 1992, Drexler advocates instead the use of large automated factories that would assemble other machines piece by piece. However, the researcher concedes that this would not prevent one of the plants from going out of control - especially in the event that they integrate artificial intelligence - and give rise to a risk of gray frost.
Faced with the potential risk of ecophagy (destruction of the environment) posed by gray frost, Prince Charles commissioned an investigation report from the British Royal Society to analyze the enormous environmental and social risk of nanotechnology. In their conclusions delivered on July 29, 2004, the scientists believe that self-replicating machines are not a current problem since the technology necessary to create them should not appear for several hundred years.
In a 2006 report published by the International Institute of Physics in the journal Nanotechnology , the authors – including Drexler – show that the risk of gray frost is much less likely than scientists initially thought. However, other potential and more plausible risks are singled out, including nanoterrorism and military nanotechnology. The authors nevertheless recommend integrating control systems into molecular nanomachines to avoid any scenario of the gray jelly type.
